Bitcoin (BTC) Predictive Factors

Sentiment Factors

Attention Index
Tier 2

Measures the assets' overall share of all conversations about crypto.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Development Effort
Tier 1

Measures the ongoing development effort for the chain.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Internal Communication Dynamics
Tier 2

Quantity of internal communication between stakeholders.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Reddit Mentions
Tier 1

Measures interest in the asset by tracking the number of mentions on Reddit.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Liquidity Factors

Liquidations (Total)
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the total volume of liquidations across all exchanges.

Predictive Strength

Reliable

Exchange Outflow
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the flow of digital asset out of trading venues.

Predictive Strength

Reliable

ETF Net Flow
Tier 1

Measures the net flow of capital into ETFs.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Open Interest (Aggregate)
Tier 1

Measures open interest data across leading global exchanges.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Macroeconomic Factors

BTC Market Dominance
Tier 1

Measures the market capitalization of Bitcoin as a percentage of all the total crypto market capitalization.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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On-Chain Factors

Whale Transactions
Tier 2

Tracks significant capital movements within digital assets by measuring high-value transaction volumes.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Short Term Holder Trading Activity
Tier 2

Measures short-term investor behavior.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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MVRV
Tier 2

Measures Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of a digital asset, designed to evaluate its valuation dynamics across various timeframes.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Net Realized Profit/Loss
Tier 2

Measures the ratio of realized profit and loss of all participants.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Miner Metrics

Miner Profitability
Tier 1

Measures mining profitability, providing insights into their impact on overall market selling pressure.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Hash Price
Tier 1

Measures the cost of mining a Bitcoin block.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Hashrate
Tier 1

Measures the total computational power dedicated to mining Bitcoin.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Stablecoin Metrics

Stablecoin Supply
Tier 2

Measures the total supply of stablecoins across multiple blockchains, providing insights into forthcoming potential liquidity.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Stablecoin Transfer Volumes
Tier 1

Measures the total volume of stablecoins transferred across blockchains.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Stablecoin Supply Ratio
Tier 1

Measures the ratio of stablecoin supply to Bitcoin market capitalization.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Cross-Asset Predictive Relationships

US Cloud Computing Sector Momentum Spillover
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the asset's sensitivity to the US Cloud Computing Index, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Speculative Flow Index
Tier 2
Preview

Measures the asset's sensitivity to speculative flows, captures the lead-lag relationship.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Bitcoin / Tech Sector Correlation
Tier 1
Preview

The Rolling Correlation between Bitcoin and the US Tech Sector.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Bitcoin / Gold Correlation
Tier 1
Preview

The Rolling Correlation between Bitcoin and Gold.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Market Statistics

Meta Risk Index
Index
Preview

Our composite predictive risk factor, encompassing liquidity,on-chain, cross-asset factors.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Leverage Risk Index
Tier 2
Preview

Measures ecosystem-wide leverage via proxy metrics, captures the inherent systemic risk.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Stablecoin Margin Borrow Rates
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the average borrowing rates across leading exchanges for stablecoins.

Predictive Strength

Limited

Long Short Ratio
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the accounts that are long versus the accounts that are short.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Options Market

Implied Volatility (1 Week)
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the options market's expectation of Bitcoin's future price volatility.

Predictive Strength

Limited

Implied Volatility (1 Month)
Tier 1

Measures the options market's expectation of Bitcoin's future price volatility.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Implied Volatility (3 Months)
Tier 1

Measures the options market's expectation of Bitcoin's future price volatility.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Technical Factors

Fast Momentum
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the momentum of an asset, calculated on shorter timeframes.

Predictive Strength

Limited

Slow Momentum
Tier 1

Measures of the momentum of an asset, calculated on shorter timeframes.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Skew
Tier 1

Measures the skewness of the returns of an asset, calculated based on a range different lookback periods.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Instantenous Momentum
Tier 1

Measure of the instantenous momentum of an asset.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Bitcoin (BTC) Predictive Factors

Sentiment Factors

Attention IndexTier 2

Development EffortTier 1

Internal Communication DynamicsTier 2

Reddit MentionsTier 1

Liquidity Factors

Liquidations (Total)Tier 1Preview

Exchange OutflowTier 1Preview

ETF Net FlowTier 1

Open Interest (Aggregate)Tier 1

Macroeconomic Factors

BTC Market DominanceTier 1

On-Chain Factors

Whale TransactionsTier 2

Short Term Holder Trading ActivityTier 2

MVRVTier 2

Net Realized Profit/LossTier 2

Miner Metrics

Miner ProfitabilityTier 1

Hash PriceTier 1

HashrateTier 1

Stablecoin Metrics

Stablecoin SupplyTier 2

Stablecoin Transfer VolumesTier 1

Stablecoin Supply RatioTier 1

Cross-Asset Predictive Relationships

US Cloud Computing Sector Momentum SpilloverTier 1Preview

Speculative Flow IndexTier 2Preview

Bitcoin / Tech Sector CorrelationTier 1Preview

Bitcoin / Gold CorrelationTier 1Preview

Market Statistics

Meta Risk IndexIndexPreview

Leverage Risk IndexTier 2Preview

Stablecoin Margin Borrow RatesTier 1Preview

Long Short RatioTier 1Preview

Options Market

Implied Volatility (1 Week)Tier 1Preview

Implied Volatility (1 Month)Tier 1

Implied Volatility (3 Months)Tier 1

Technical Factors

Fast MomentumTier 1Preview

Slow MomentumTier 1

SkewTier 1

Instantenous MomentumTier 1

Interested in all predictive factors?

Attention Index
Tier 2

Development Effort
Tier 1

Internal Communication Dynamics
Tier 2

Reddit Mentions
Tier 1

Liquidations (Total)
Tier 1
Preview

Exchange Outflow
Tier 1
Preview

ETF Net Flow
Tier 1

Open Interest (Aggregate)
Tier 1

BTC Market Dominance
Tier 1

Whale Transactions
Tier 2

Short Term Holder Trading Activity
Tier 2

MVRV
Tier 2

Net Realized Profit/Loss
Tier 2

Miner Profitability
Tier 1

Hash Price
Tier 1

Hashrate
Tier 1

Stablecoin Supply
Tier 2

Stablecoin Transfer Volumes
Tier 1

Stablecoin Supply Ratio
Tier 1

US Cloud Computing Sector Momentum Spillover
Tier 1
Preview

Speculative Flow Index
Tier 2
Preview

Bitcoin / Tech Sector Correlation
Tier 1
Preview

Bitcoin / Gold Correlation
Tier 1
Preview

Meta Risk Index
Index
Preview

Leverage Risk Index
Tier 2
Preview

Stablecoin Margin Borrow Rates
Tier 1
Preview

Long Short Ratio
Tier 1
Preview

Implied Volatility (1 Week)
Tier 1
Preview

Implied Volatility (1 Month)
Tier 1

Implied Volatility (3 Months)
Tier 1

Fast Momentum
Tier 1
Preview

Slow Momentum
Tier 1

Skew
Tier 1

Instantenous Momentum
Tier 1