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Net Realized Profit/Loss Index measures the profit and loss of all market participants.
NRPL quantifies aggregate profit/loss realization, acting as a psychological barometer. Extreme positive values (profit-taking frenzies) often precede local tops, while extreme negatives (capitulation) signal bottoms. This mirrors Warren Buffett's "be fearful when others are greedy" principle, as NRPL objectively measures greed/capitulation thresholds.
Net Realized Profit/Loss is sourced by analyzing on-chain transactions to calculate the difference between realized profits (coins sold above acquisition cost) and realized losses (coins sold below acquisition cost). We track coins' movement history to determine cost basis and current value, aggregating these values across all transactions. The raw data is then normalized against historical averages to create a relative index.
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| Benchmark (Bitcoin) | Strategy | |
|---|---|---|
100% | 100% | |
100% | 100% | |
1.00 | 1.00 | |
100% | 100% | |
1.00 | 1.00 | |
1.00 | 1.00 |
Predictive factors are designed to be translated into simple long-only strategy, with simulated past performance:
The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.05% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.
Get started by replicating the historical performance with our code snippets.