Development Effort (Bitcoin)

Measures the ongoing development effort for the chain.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Bitcoin historically had ▲ 9.21% 30 days returns when Development Effort was ▆ High (0.6 - 0.8). It indicates higher than average expected returns.

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BTC Price with Development Effort

Development Effort Predictive Strength Analysis

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

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Our Methodology

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Measures the development effort of a project by counting the number of commits, merges, and lines of code added or removed from the codebase.

Potential Edge

Predictive Factor of Network Utility Growth

Active development correlates strongly with future protocol improvements and ecosystem expansion. Chains with sustained developer activity (measured by commits, unique contributors, and codebase complexity) tend to deploy upgrades that drive user adoption.

Data Collection Methodology

Development Effort is calculated by tracking codebase activity metrics such as commit frequency, merge events and issues. These metrics are sourced from version control systems like GitHub, then normalized against historical averages to assess current development intensity relative to past activity.

Backtest (Strategy Performance) - Strategy

Strategy Yearly Returns (CAGR)

100.00%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Max Drawdown

100.00%

Beta

1.00

Volatility

45.67%

To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

Long when the predictive factor is above 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
Short when the predictive factor is below 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

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