Predictive Strength

Negligible
Bitcoin historically had 5.18% 30 days returns when MVRV was▆ Moderate (0.4 - 0.6). It indicates average expected returns.
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BTC Price with MVRV

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Measures Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of a digital asset, designed to evaluate its valuation dynamics across various timeframes.

Potential Edge

Quantifies Unrealized Profit/Loss Dynamics

MVRV measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss across Bitcoin holders by comparing the current price to the average cost basis (realized price). This creates a direct feedback loop:

  • High values: Signals extreme unrealized profits, historically coinciding with cycle tops as investors take profits
  • Low values: Indicates widespread unrealized losses, often marking capitulation phases and accumulation opportunities
  • By tracking these extremes, MVRV captures shifts in investor behavior before they manifest in price action

Data Collection Methodology

MVRV data is collected by analyzing blockchain transactions to calculate Market Value (current price × circulating supply) and Realized Value (aggregate of all coins' last transacted prices). Realized Value is derived from on-chain data tracking each coin's acquisition price at its last movement, while Market Value uses real-time price data. The ratio is then computed as Market Value divided by Realized Value, providing a valuation metric normalized against historical averages.

Read more about our methodology

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - MVRV and BTC 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

Backtest - Strategy Performance

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To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • 100% Long when the predictive factor is close to 1, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Flat when the predictive factor is close to 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

API

Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.

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Our Methodology