Polkadot (DOT) Predictive Factors

Sentiment Factors

Attention Index
Tier 2

Measures the assets' overall share of all conversations about crypto.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Development Effort
Tier 1

Measures the ongoing development effort for the chain.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Internal Communication Dynamics
Tier 2

Quantity of internal communication between stakeholders.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Reddit Mentions
Tier 1

Measures interest in the asset by tracking the number of mentions on Reddit.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Liquidity Factors

ETF Net Flow
Tier 1

Measures the net flow of capital into ETFs.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Open Interest (Aggregate)
Tier 1

Measures open interest data across leading global exchanges.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Aggregate Futures Volume
Tier 1

Measures the total volume of Bitcoin futures contracts traded across leading exchanges.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Exchange Spot Flow (Net)
Tier 2

Measures the inflows minus the outflows of the asset on exchanges.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Macroeconomic Factors

BTC Market Dominance
Tier 1

Measures the market capitalization of Bitcoin as a percentage of all the total crypto market capitalization.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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On-Chain Factors

Whale Transactions
Tier 2

Tracks significant capital movements within digital assets by measuring high-value transaction volumes.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Short Term Holder Trading Activity
Tier 2

Measures short-term investor behavior.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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MVRV
Tier 2

Measures Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of a digital asset, designed to evaluate its valuation dynamics across various timeframes.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Net Realized Profit/Loss
Tier 2

Measures the ratio of realized profit and loss of all participants.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Miner Metrics

Miner Profitability
Tier 1

Measures mining profitability, providing insights into their impact on overall market selling pressure.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Hash Price
Tier 1

Measures the cost of mining a Bitcoin block.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Hashrate
Tier 1

Measures the total computational power dedicated to mining Bitcoin.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Stablecoin Metrics

Stablecoin Supply
Tier 2

Measures the total supply of stablecoins across multiple blockchains, providing insights into forthcoming potential liquidity.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Stablecoin Transfer Volumes
Tier 1

Measures the total volume of stablecoins transferred across blockchains.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Stablecoin Supply Ratio
Tier 1

Measures the ratio of stablecoin supply to Bitcoin market capitalization.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Cross-Asset Predictive Relationships

US Cloud Computing Sector Momentum Spillover
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the asset's sensitivity to the US Cloud Computing Index, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Speculative Flow Index
Tier 2
Preview

Measures the asset's sensitivity to speculative flows, captures the lead-lag relationship.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Bond Momentum Spillover Index
Index

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Tech Sector Momentum Spillover
Tier 2

Measures the asset's sensitivity to the US Tech Sector Index, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Market Statistics

Meta Risk Index
Index
Preview

Our composite predictive risk factor, encompassing liquidity,on-chain, cross-asset factors.

Predictive Strength

Significant

Stablecoin Margin Borrow Rates
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the average borrowing rates across leading exchanges for stablecoins.

Predictive Strength

Limited

Funding Rates
Tier 1

Measures the aggregate funding rates for the asset across leading global exchanges.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Futures Premium (CME)
Tier 1

Measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin futures contracts on CME, and the spot price.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Options Market

Implied Volatility (1 Month)
Tier 1

Measures the options market's expectation of Bitcoin's future price volatility.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Implied Volatility (3 Months)
Tier 1

Measures the options market's expectation of Bitcoin's future price volatility.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Technical Factors

Fast Momentum
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the momentum of an asset, calculated on shorter timeframes.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Slow Momentum
Tier 1

Measures of the momentum of an asset, calculated on shorter timeframes.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Skew
Tier 1

Measures the skewness of the returns of an asset, calculated based on a range different lookback periods.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Instantenous Momentum
Tier 1

Measure of the instantenous momentum of an asset.

Predictive Strength

Negligible

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Polkadot (DOT) Predictive Factors

Sentiment Factors

Attention IndexTier 2

Development EffortTier 1

Internal Communication DynamicsTier 2

Reddit MentionsTier 1

Liquidity Factors

ETF Net FlowTier 1

Open Interest (Aggregate)Tier 1

Aggregate Futures VolumeTier 1

Exchange Spot Flow (Net)Tier 2

Macroeconomic Factors

BTC Market DominanceTier 1

On-Chain Factors

Whale TransactionsTier 2

Short Term Holder Trading ActivityTier 2

MVRVTier 2

Net Realized Profit/LossTier 2

Miner Metrics

Miner ProfitabilityTier 1

Hash PriceTier 1

HashrateTier 1

Stablecoin Metrics

Stablecoin SupplyTier 2

Stablecoin Transfer VolumesTier 1

Stablecoin Supply RatioTier 1

Cross-Asset Predictive Relationships

US Cloud Computing Sector Momentum SpilloverTier 1Preview

Speculative Flow IndexTier 2Preview

Bond Momentum Spillover IndexIndex

Tech Sector Momentum SpilloverTier 2

Market Statistics

Meta Risk IndexIndexPreview

Stablecoin Margin Borrow RatesTier 1Preview

Funding RatesTier 1

Futures Premium (CME)Tier 1

Options Market

Implied Volatility (1 Month)Tier 1

Implied Volatility (3 Months)Tier 1

Technical Factors

Fast MomentumTier 1Preview

Slow MomentumTier 1

SkewTier 1

Instantenous MomentumTier 1

Interested in all predictive factors?

Attention Index
Tier 2

Development Effort
Tier 1

Internal Communication Dynamics
Tier 2

Reddit Mentions
Tier 1

ETF Net Flow
Tier 1

Open Interest (Aggregate)
Tier 1

Aggregate Futures Volume
Tier 1

Exchange Spot Flow (Net)
Tier 2

BTC Market Dominance
Tier 1

Whale Transactions
Tier 2

Short Term Holder Trading Activity
Tier 2

MVRV
Tier 2

Net Realized Profit/Loss
Tier 2

Miner Profitability
Tier 1

Hash Price
Tier 1

Hashrate
Tier 1

Stablecoin Supply
Tier 2

Stablecoin Transfer Volumes
Tier 1

Stablecoin Supply Ratio
Tier 1

US Cloud Computing Sector Momentum Spillover
Tier 1
Preview

Speculative Flow Index
Tier 2
Preview

Bond Momentum Spillover Index
Index

Tech Sector Momentum Spillover
Tier 2

Meta Risk Index
Index
Preview

Stablecoin Margin Borrow Rates
Tier 1
Preview

Funding Rates
Tier 1

Futures Premium (CME)
Tier 1

Implied Volatility (1 Month)
Tier 1

Implied Volatility (3 Months)
Tier 1

Fast Momentum
Tier 1
Preview

Slow Momentum
Tier 1

Skew
Tier 1

Instantenous Momentum
Tier 1