Predictive Strength

Negligible
Ethereum historically had 9.21% 30 days returns when Aggregate Futures Volume was▆ High (0.6 - 0.8). It indicates higher than average expected returns.
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ETH Price with Aggregate Futures Volume

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Measures the total volume of Bitcoin futures contracts traded across leading exchanges.

Data Collection Methodology

The data is sourced by aggregating raw futures trading volumes from major cryptocurrency exchanges (e.g., Binance, CME, Deribit). These volumes are then normalized against historical averages to create a relative index, where values of 1 indicate higher-than-average activity and 0 indicate lower activity.

Read more about our methodology

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - Aggregate Futures Volume and ETH 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

Backtest - Strategy Performance

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To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • 100% Long when the predictive factor is close to 1, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Flat when the predictive factor is close to 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

API

Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.

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Our Methodology