Bitcoin (BTC) Predictive Risk Factors

US Cloud Computing Sector Momentum Spillover
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the asset's sensitivity to the US Cloud Computing Index, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Max Drawdown

-38%

Volatility

44%

CAGR

74%

Sharpe Ratio

1.47

Speculative Flow Index
Tier 2
Preview

Measures the asset's sensitivity to speculative flows, captures the lead-lag relationship.

Max Drawdown

-41%

Volatility

43%

CAGR

68%

Sharpe Ratio

1.43

Meta Risk Index
Index
Preview

Our composite predictive risk factor, encompassing liquidity,on-chain, cross-asset factors.

Max Drawdown

-34%

Volatility

39%

CAGR

68%

Sharpe Ratio

1.53

Long Short Ratio
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the accounts that are long versus the accounts that are short.

Max Drawdown

-38%

Volatility

34%

CAGR

48%

Sharpe Ratio

1.31

Stablecoin Margin Borrow Rates
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the average borrowing rates across leading exchanges for stablecoins.

Max Drawdown

-15%

Volatility

31%

CAGR

78%

Sharpe Ratio

2.01

Implied Volatility (1 Week)
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the options market's expectation of Bitcoin's future price volatility.

Max Drawdown

-39%

Volatility

36%

CAGR

32%

Sharpe Ratio

0.95

Liquidations (Total)
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the total volume of liquidations across all exchanges.

Max Drawdown

-38%

Volatility

33%

CAGR

38%

Sharpe Ratio

1.13

Fast Momentum
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the momentum of an asset, calculated on shorter timeframes.

Max Drawdown

-51%

Volatility

35%

CAGR

51%

Sharpe Ratio

1.35

Exchange Outflow
Tier 1
Preview

Measures the flow of digital asset out of trading venues.

Max Drawdown

-45%

Volatility

45%

CAGR

60%

Sharpe Ratio

1.28

Bitcoin / Tech Sector Correlation
Tier 1
Preview

The Rolling Correlation between Bitcoin and the US Tech Sector.

Max Drawdown

-40%

Volatility

37%

CAGR

46%

Sharpe Ratio

1.21

Bitcoin / Gold Correlation
Tier 1
Preview

The Rolling Correlation between Bitcoin and Gold.

Max Drawdown

-49%

Volatility

36%

CAGR

36%

Sharpe Ratio

1.03

Leverage Risk Index
Tier 2
Preview

Measures ecosystem-wide leverage via proxy metrics, captures the inherent systemic risk.

Max Drawdown

-58%

Volatility

45%

CAGR

38%

Sharpe Ratio

0.96

Bond Momentum Spillover Index
Index

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

ETF Net Flow
Tier 1

Measures the net flow of capital into ETFs.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Tech Sector Momentum Spillover
Tier 2

Measures the asset's sensitivity to the US Tech Sector Index, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Crypto Large Cap / Small Cap Correlation
Tier 1

The Rolling Correlation between Crypto Large Cap and Crypto Small Cap Indices.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Attention Index
Tier 2

Measures the assets' overall share of all conversations about crypto.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Development Effort
Tier 1

Measures the ongoing development effort for the chain.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Internal Communication Dynamics
Tier 2

Quantity of internal communication between stakeholders.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Whale Transactions
Tier 2

Tracks significant capital movements within digital assets by measuring high-value transaction volumes.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Short Term Holder Trading Activity
Tier 2

Measures short-term investor behavior.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Reddit Mentions
Tier 1

Measures interest in the asset by tracking the number of mentions on Reddit.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Telegram Mentions
Tier 2

Measures interest in the asset by tracking the number of mentions on Telegram.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Youtube Mentions
Tier 1

Measures interest in the asset by tracking the number of mentions on Youtube.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Reddit Sentiment
Tier 1

Measures the ratio of positive to negative mentions on Reddit.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Telegram Sentiment
Tier 2

Measures the ratio of positive to negative mentions on Telegram.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Aggregate Sentiment
Tier 2

Measures the ratio of positive to negative mentions across all tracked channels.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

MVRV
Tier 2

Measures Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of a digital asset, designed to evaluate its valuation dynamics across various timeframes.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Inflation Linked Bonds Momentum Spillover
Tier 2

Measures the asset's sensitivity to inflation-linked US government bonds, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Corporate Bond Momentum Spillover
Tier 2

Measures the asset's sensitivity to high quality corporate bond rates, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

High Yield Bond Momentum Spillover
Tier 2

Measures the asset's sensitivity to high yield corporate bond rates, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Equities Momentum Spillover
Tier 2

Measures the asset's sensitivity to global equity indices, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Net Realized Profit/Loss
Tier 2

Measures the ratio of realized profit and loss of all participants.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

New Users
Tier 1

Measures the number of new users on-chain.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Miner Profitability
Tier 1

Measures mining profitability, providing insights into their impact on overall market selling pressure.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Open Interest (Aggregate)
Tier 1

Measures open interest data across leading global exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Funding Rates
Tier 1

Measures the aggregate funding rates for the asset across leading global exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Hash Price
Tier 1

Measures the cost of mining a Bitcoin block.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Stablecoin Supply
Tier 2

Measures the total supply of stablecoins across multiple blockchains, providing insights into forthcoming potential liquidity.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Active Addresses
Tier 1

Measures the number of unique addresses interacting with the Bitcoin network.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Hashrate
Tier 1

Measures the total computational power dedicated to mining Bitcoin.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Futures Premium (CME)
Tier 1

Measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin futures contracts on CME, and the spot price.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Memecoin Index
Tier 1

Measures the market capitalization of meme-based cryptocurrencies.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Equities Market Breadth
Tier 1

Measures the ratio of the top 400 large cap companies participating in a market rally.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

BTC Market Dominance
Tier 1

Measures the market capitalization of Bitcoin as a percentage of all the total crypto market capitalization.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

MSTR Premium
Tier 1

Measures the difference between Microstrategy's market capitalization over its Bitcoin holdings.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Implied Volatility (1 Month)
Tier 1

Measures the options market's expectation of Bitcoin's future price volatility.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Implied Volatility (3 Months)
Tier 1

Measures the options market's expectation of Bitcoin's future price volatility.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Aggregate Futures Volume
Tier 1

Measures the total volume of Bitcoin futures contracts traded across leading exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Stablecoin Transfer Volumes
Tier 1

Measures the total volume of stablecoins transferred across blockchains.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Stablecoin Supply Ratio
Tier 1

Measures the ratio of stablecoin supply to Bitcoin market capitalization.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Exchange Spot Flow (Net)
Tier 2

Measures the inflows minus the outflows of the asset on exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Liquidations (Long)
Tier 1

Measures the total volume of long liquidations across all exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Liquidations (Short)
Tier 1

Measures the total volume of short liquidations across all exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Margin Borrow Rates
Tier 1

Measures the average borrowing rates across leading exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Stablecoin Exchange Netflow
Tier 2

Measures the net flow of stablecoins across leading exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Stablecoin Percentage of Supply on Exchanges
Tier 2

Measures the percentage of stablecoin supply on leading exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Stablecoin Exchange Inflow
Tier 2

Measures the inflow of stablecoins to leading exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Futures Premium
Tier 1

Measures the difference between the price of perpetual futures contracts on leading exchanges and the spot price.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Spot / Futures Volume Ratio
Tier 1

Measures the ratio of spot volume to futures volume on leading exchanges.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Slow Momentum
Tier 1

Measures of the momentum of an asset, calculated on shorter timeframes.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Skew
Tier 1

Measures the skewness of the returns of an asset, calculated based on a range different lookback periods.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Instantenous Momentum
Tier 1

Measure of the instantenous momentum of an asset.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

Instantenous Volatility
Tier 1

Measure of the volatility of an asset.

Max Drawdown

100%

Volatility

100%

CAGR

100%

Sharpe Ratio

1.00

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