Predictive Strength

Negligible
Bitcoin historically had 5.18% 30 days returns when Hash Price was▆ Moderate (0.4 - 0.6). It indicates average expected returns.
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BTC Price with Hash Price

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Hashprice measures the cost of mining a Bitcoin block. The index provides insights into the market's perception of mining profitability and network health, quantifying the daily revenue a miner earns per unit of computational power (terahash per second, TH/s).

Hashprice is a function of four variables:

  • Bitcoin’s Market Price: A higher BTC price directly increases the dollar value of mining rewards, elevating hashprice.

  • Network Hashrate and Difficulty: As more participants contribute computational power, mining difficulty rises, diluting rewards per TH/s and reducing hashprice.

  • Transaction fees and Block Subsidy

Potential Edge

Miner Profitability as a Market Stress Signal

Hash Price directly reflects the economic viability of mining operations. When it falls below operational costs (electricity + hardware depreciation), miners face capitulation risks, often liquidating BTC reserves to cover expenses. This selling pressure can precede broader market downturns, while Hash Price recovery signals reduced sell-side pressure and potential accumulation phases.

Data Collection Methodology

Hash Price is calculated by dividing miners' daily revenue (block rewards + transaction fees) by the Bitcoin network's total hashrate, adjusted for Bitcoin's market price. The index is normalized against historical averages to contextualize current mining economics relative to past performance.

Read more about our methodology

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - Hash Price and BTC 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

Backtest - Strategy Performance

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To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • 100% Long when the predictive factor is close to 1, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Flat when the predictive factor is close to 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

API

Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.

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Our Methodology