Predictive Strength

Negligible
Stellar historically had 2.53% 30 days returns when Funding Rates was▆ Low (0.2 - 0.4). It indicates average expected returns.
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XLM Price with Funding Rates

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Measures the aggregate funding rates for the asset across leading global exchanges.

Potential Edge

Sentiment Amplification Feedback Loop

Crypto funding rates act as a real-time gauge of market positioning extremes. When funding rates reach elevated positive levels (longs paying shorts), this signals overcrowded bullish positioning - a classic contrarian indicator. The mechanism becomes self-reinforcing as:

  • High rates increase holding costs for longs, forcing profit-taking
  • Liquidations cascade through over-leveraged positions

Leverage Flush-Out Dynamics

Perpetual futures markets amplify volatility through their embedded leverage (often 10-100x). Elevated funding rates correlate with:

  • Increased margin pressure on overextended positions
  • Accelerated liquidations during price reversals
  • Reflexive selling from forced position unwinds

Data Collection Methodology

Funding rate data is sourced from leading crypto derivatives exchanges (e.g., Binance, OKX) through their published perpetual futures contract metrics. Aggregation involves weighting by open interest to reflect market-wide sentiment. The normalized index compares current rates to historical averages, flagging deviations from typical market conditions.

Read more about our methodology

Backtest (Strategy Performance) - Strategy

100.00%
1.00
100.00%
1.00
79.07%

To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • Long when the predictive factor is above 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Short when the predictive factor is below 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - Funding Rates and XLM 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

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Our Methodology