Predictive Strength

Negligible
Ethereum historically had -6.82% 30 days returns when New Users was▆ Very Low (0 - 0.2). It indicates negative expected returns.
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ETH Price with New Users

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Measures the number of new users on-chain.

Potential Edge

Early Adoption Signals

New user growth often precedes price rallies as it reflects grassroots adoption before institutional capital arrives. Historical patterns show networks like Ethereum and Solana experienced large user growth spikes 3-6 months before major price appreciation cycles

This metric captures first-mover activity – retail investors and developers testing new protocols – which often seeds liquidity and narrative momentum.

Network Effect Proxy

Blockchain value accrual follows Metcalfe's Law (network value ∝ users²). Key dynamics:

  • Each new user increases potential transaction partners and use cases
  • Viral growth phases create self-reinforcing ecosystems
  • Platforms crossing critical mass (≈1M DAUs) tend to sustain compounding growth

Unlike lagging price metrics, user growth directly measures protocol health.

Data Collection Methodology

Blockchain nodes are connected via polling (active block queries) to capture transaction data. The metric is derived by counting unique wallet addresses appearing for the first time, then normalizing against historical averages to create a relative index.

Read more about our methodology

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - New Users and ETH 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

Backtest - Strategy Performance

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1.00
100.00%
1.00
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To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • 100% Long when the predictive factor is close to 1, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Flat when the predictive factor is close to 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

API

Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.

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Our Methodology