Predictive Strength

Negligible
Dogecoin historically had 2.53% 30 days returns when Whale Transactions was▆ Low (0.2 - 0.4). It indicates average expected returns.
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DOGE Price with Whale Transactions

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Whale Transactions tracks significant capital movements within digital assets by measuring high-value transactions. It provides insights into institutional and large-scale trading activity, which may be impliciative of insider trading behavior.

Potential Edge

Sentiment amplification mechanics

Whale alerts trigger asymmetric retail reactions:

  • 73% of traders report changing positions after seeing whale movement alerts
  • Exchange inflows >10k BTC correlate with 14% price declines within 48hrs This creates self-fulfilling prophecies through herd behavior.

This creates a durable information asymmetry where whale transaction patterns serve as "smart money" flow indicators.

Revealing hidden market structure

Blockchain's transparency exposes concentration risks traditional markets obscure. When 0.01% of addresses control 27% of Bitcoin supply, their wallet movements create measurable liquidity shocks.

Data Collection Methodology

Whale transaction data is collected by monitoring blockchain activity for large-value transfers, identifying wallets associated with institutional or high-net-worth entities, and aggregating these movements across networks. The data is normalized by comparing current transaction volumes to historical averages, creating a relative measure of whale activity intensity.

Read more about our methodology

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - Whale Transactions and DOGE 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

Backtest - Strategy Performance

100.00%
1.00
100.00%
1.00
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1.00

To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • 100% Long when the predictive factor is close to 1, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Flat when the predictive factor is close to 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

API

Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.

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Our Methodology