Predictive Strength
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Predictive Strength
Measures Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of a digital asset, designed to evaluate its valuation dynamics across various timeframes.
MVRV measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss across Bitcoin holders by comparing the current price to the average cost basis (realized price). This creates a direct feedback loop:
MVRV data is collected by analyzing blockchain transactions to calculate Market Value (current price × circulating supply) and Realized Value (aggregate of all coins' last transacted prices). Realized Value is derived from on-chain data tracking each coin's acquisition price at its last movement, while Market Value uses real-time price data. The ratio is then computed as Market Value divided by Realized Value, providing a valuation metric normalized against historical averages.
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To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):
The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.
Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.
Predictive Strength
Predictive Strength