Predictive Strength

Negligible
Cardano historically had -6.82% 30 days returns when Telegram Mentions was▆ Very Low (0 - 0.2). It indicates negative expected returns.
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ADA Price with Telegram Mentions

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Measures interest in the asset by tracking the number of mentions on Telegram.

Potential Edge

Predictive Factor of Retail Momentum

With Telegram poised to onboard the next billion crypto users through its mini-app ecosystem, mention volume spikes correlate with emerging retail interest. The platform's 30% lower user acquisition cost vs competitors creates a first-mover advantage in detecting new market entrants' activity.

Reduced Bot Pollution

While Twitter sentiment analysis requires filtering ~40% bot accounts (per CoinGecko research), Telegram's invitation-only groups and channel moderation substantially lower synthetic noise. This improves signal quality.

Data Collection Methodology

YouTube mentions data is tracking public channels and chats of cryptocurrency-related groups, with counts normalized against historical averages to measure relative interest levels.

Read more about our methodology

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - Telegram Mentions and ADA 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

Backtest - Strategy Performance

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1.00
100.00%
1.00
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1.00

To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • 100% Long when the predictive factor is close to 1, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Flat when the predictive factor is close to 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

API

Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.

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Our Methodology