Predictive Strength

Negligible
Bitcoin historically had 23.64% 30 days returns when MSTR Premium was▆ Very High (0.8 - 1). It indicates higher than average expected returns.
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BTC Price with MSTR Premium

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Measures the difference between Microstrategy's market capitalization over its Bitcoin holdings.

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Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - MSTR Premium and BTC 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

Backtest - Strategy Performance

100.00%
1.00
100.00%
1.00
100.00%
1.00

To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • 100% Long when the predictive factor is close to 1, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Flat when the predictive factor is close to 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

API

Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.

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Our Methodology