Predictive Strength
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Predictive Strength
Measures the aggregate funding rates for the asset across leading global exchanges.
Crypto funding rates act as a real-time gauge of market positioning extremes. When funding rates reach elevated positive levels (longs paying shorts), this signals overcrowded bullish positioning - a classic contrarian indicator. The mechanism becomes self-reinforcing as:
Perpetual futures markets amplify volatility through their embedded leverage (often 10-100x). Elevated funding rates correlate with:
Funding rate data is sourced from leading crypto derivatives exchanges (e.g., Binance, OKX) through their published perpetual futures contract metrics. Aggregation involves weighting by open interest to reflect market-wide sentiment. The normalized index compares current rates to historical averages, flagging deviations from typical market conditions.
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To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):
The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.
Get started by validating the historical performance of the strategy with our transparent code snippets.
Copy and paste the code snippets below into your Python environment or download the files below.