Predictive Strength

Negligible
Stellar historically had -6.82% 30 days returns when Equities Demand was▆ Very Low (0 - 0.2). It indicates negative expected returns.
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XLM Price with Equities Demand

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Measures the asset's sensitivity to global equity indices, captures the lead-lag relationship between the two assets.

Potential Edge

Macro Policy Transmission Channel

Global equity markets act as first responders to Fed policy shifts and macroeconomic shocks. Crypto markets may subsequently price in these reactions with a lag due to:

  • Lower institutional participation density compared to equities
  • Delayed liquidity reallocation from traditional risk assets
  • Higher HFT participation in the equities market

CME Bitcoin futures now show 89% correlation with S&P 500 E-mini order flow patterns. This creates mechanical linkages through:

  • Cross-margin requirements forcing paired liquidations
  • Vol-targeting funds rebalancing both asset classes simultaneously
  • Hedge fund risk parity strategies treating crypto as "tech equity proxy"

Data Collection Methodology

The "Equities Demand" factor measures sensitivity to global equity indices by analyzing lead-lag relationships between asset prices and index movements. Data is sourced from global equity indices, with normalization applied to historical averages to create a relative sensitivity score (1 = above average, 0 = below average).

Read more about our methodology

Backtest (Strategy Performance) - Strategy

100.00%
1.00
100.00%
1.00
81.86%

To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • Long when the predictive factor is above 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Short when the predictive factor is below 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - Equities Demand and XLM 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

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Our Methodology