Predictive Strength

Negligible
Toncoin historically had 23.64% 30 days returns when Retail Money Market Funds was▆ Very High (0.8 - 1). It indicates higher than average expected returns.
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TON Price with Retail Money Market Funds

Factor Plot

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▆ Very Low▆ Low▆ Moderate▆ High▆ Very High

Predictive Strength

Negligible

Potential Edge

Risk Sentiment Mirror

Retail MMF inflows often signal risk aversion in traditional markets, while outflows suggest capital seeking higher returns. Crypto markets exhibit amplified sensitivity to these shifts due to retail crypto investors' documented tendency to chase momentum and high-risk assets

Data Collection Methodology

The data for Retail Money Market Funds is sourced through direct fund reporting platofrms, aggregating flow data from institutional and retail funds. Regulatory filings (e.g., SEC's Form N-MFP) provide structured asset allocation and category breakdowns, while aggregated reports from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and Federal Reserve track weekly asset levels.

Read more about our methodology

Backtest (Strategy Performance) - Strategy

100.00%
1.00
100.00%
1.00
61.65%

To understand a predictive factors predictive power, we create a simple long/short strategy and simulate its past performance (with daily rebalancing):

  • Long when the predictive factor is above 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.
  • Short when the predictive factor is below 0, with a position size equivalent to the predictive factor value.

The strategy is rebalanced daily, on a continuous basis. There are 0.5% transaction costs applied on each position adjustment.

Track this predictive factor on your dashboard

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Scatter plot - Retail Money Market Funds and TON 30 and 90 Day Average Returns

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Our Methodology